TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,289

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes16c3,768$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.0130919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes39c973.47$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.4642857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes1c923.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0428648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes6c830.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes8c749$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5631341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes11c635.8$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.386610.6%7 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x380b…bfa8backed Yes10c614.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.532030%6 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+103.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes13c609.15$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes10c606.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.112,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed Yes21c527.87$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.49054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No69c477.91$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7957614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes9c450.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1440525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c444.48$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.247,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes22c394.25$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8117135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes3c363.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed Yes12c361.41$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7642315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes26c359.65$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.573026.7%8 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No77c357.86$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.224,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c353.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes5c350$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes18c312.58$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2616437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes11c312.52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.635111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes8c283.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7635232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c274.26$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.951,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes9c270$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.352444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b0…9f87backed Yes13c257.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.443511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c239.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.452,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes20c217.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.015731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf985…5fc8backed Yes18c212.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.241118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-75.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes14c210.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.862,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c205.75$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.861,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f2…09babacked No80c205.54$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.833751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes14c199.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2732132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes21c196.62$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8954143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes39c194.15$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.552725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec53…e515backed No76c166.37$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.451330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes15c164.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No70c163.99$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.552,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed No76c163.18$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4733962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes31c159.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5256131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes24c159.55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.625228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes26c154.88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5660236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7c…411abacked Yes26c143.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.221650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes13c139.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2659440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes32c133.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes24c133.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.553,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes17c132.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.185,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc967…91d5backed Yes10c127.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.77913.9%11 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes37c125.83$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8611223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf607…7ca0backed Yes27c121.2$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.444632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes37c116.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.221,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x967e…2fb6backed Yes10c115.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114332.9%47 W · 96 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x406f…327dbacked Yes27c111.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.022020%4 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes23c105.17$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c5e…aa95backed Yes11c104.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8f…171bbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a94…0a7bbacked Yes15c99.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151816.7%3 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes24c97.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes11c96.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82767.9%6 W · 70 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…f1bcbacked Yes19c96.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.38540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed No72c95.81$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.838748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02d4…4b28backed Yes22c92.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99277.4%2 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-61.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes32c90$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.811835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes20c88.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6770133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c4…46d8backed Yes22c86.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.973050%15 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1f…be44backed Yes20c86.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.49425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No73c85.83$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1952571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x487d…6813backed Yes16c82.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.196142.6%26 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No64c79.87$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.647,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No72c79.34$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2616575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes22c77.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8353437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No76c76.04$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2562555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd39…43a8backed Yes31c73.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8212317.9%22 W · 101 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8278…9464backed No79c73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.413250%66 W · 66 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc76b…c745backed Yes35c72.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.351040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes23c67.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2531124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c66.47$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.669,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes26c65.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0719541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes24c63.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x178b…0c67backed Yes20c61.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.273330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No74c61.15$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.927167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.234748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a38…16a5backed Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.85543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes36c59.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.579750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes37c59.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6818327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes19c55.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5727246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No69c55.48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.219059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No68c54.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3363656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes19c53.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4522934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb3e…011fbacked Yes23c52.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No76c52.55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2490…11a3backed No67c52.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.257061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked No78c51.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.319160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes36c50.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.098417.9%15 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2130859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.