Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e6cca821a711ee75670dcdd659e40d278a53ac294e0187359a4c4742a8b6f8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d4…0a1bbacked Yes | 0c | 31,494$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…4240backed Yes | 1c | 2,186$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 863.28$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.59 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 730.83$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 17c | 721.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 21c | 665.12$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.82 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 556.49$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 539.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 514.82$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 490.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 489.31$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…f2d0backed Yes | 17c | 432$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 30c | 403.2$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 27c | 394.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 75c | 336.31$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 317.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 17c | 303.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 30c | 266.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 15c | 240$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 204.58$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 22c | 197.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 26c | 193.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 19c | 186.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 29c | 160.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 18c | 156.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 153.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…46d8backed No | 76c | 149.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 15c | 149.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 139.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 71c | 135.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 42c | 129.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f0…8994backed Yes | 31c | 126.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 12c | 126.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 29c | 122.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 120.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 28c | 118.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 70c | 111.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 106.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 37c | 106.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 104.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 22c | 104.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…2402backed Yes | 27c | 102.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…76d5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dae…0128backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed No | 61c | 97.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 11c | 96.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…ee30backed Yes | 17c | 96.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 19c | 95.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…0c67backed Yes | 17c | 91.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7598…b1c2backed Yes | 30c | 89.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed Yes | 15c | 88.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 35c | 87.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…4636backed Yes | 42c | 80.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5457…2ba9backed Yes | 31c | 71.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 22c | 69.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 30c | 66.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 18c | 65.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754c…6fd2backed Yes | 30c | 65.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 35c | 64.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 64.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ce…9476backed Yes | 29c | 64.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…69e7backed No | 71c | 53.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…d478backed No | 77c | 51.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…a835backed Yes | 36c | 51.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 80c | 51.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…17d5backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 49.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 25c | 49.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 31c | 48.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked No | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 62c | 48.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 29c | 48.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 26c | 45.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 80c | 43.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…246dbacked Yes | 44c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 42.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 42.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 41.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 75c | 40.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…15dcbacked Yes | 34c | 40.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694b…dadbbacked Yes | 27c | 39.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 37c | 35.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…b6aabacked No | 65c | 33.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked No | 72c | 33.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdf…24a1backed Yes | 36c | 33.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 38c | 33.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 74c | 32.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 37c | 30.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 30.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.