TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,441
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,441 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72d0…98e2backed No0c9,242$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.361353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked Yes41c606.21$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.6742469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes51c563.59$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No28c560.55$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes79c526.33$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No43c513.54$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.687,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c452.6$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30017,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes69c452.2$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.585,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes43c447.13$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.8616437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes38c423.87$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.381,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes47c399.76$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.283026.7%8 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes63c381.5$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.6442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes48c378.85$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.555731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked No23c351.61$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.227729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes38c313.55$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.441,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No65c271.97$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.782,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes36c257.88$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2539966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes36c255.57$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.853441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes56c251.68$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5346232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes48c240.36$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6817135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes52c218.1$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.313644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes39c210.77$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.618534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b0…9f87backed No15c199.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No38c190.37$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.552,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes37c183.84$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.731,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes39c173.49$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4710163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes39c169.69$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No62c164.6$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.482,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes39c162.18$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.245228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked Yes56c154.58$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.937758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes38c151.64$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0165934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes51c141.22$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5915334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes41c138$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4211038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes37c136.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9856131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes73c134.22$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No62c132.58$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.27266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No50c126.12$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.644,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e5…63d3backed No55c124.34$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.932045%9 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No20c124.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2624768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb991…aa11backed No23c116.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.31911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No31c114.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2463656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No57c114.21$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0534057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes41c114.05$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.999344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4c8…2be8backed Yes41c112.92$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.62250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes48c111.86$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.221,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No21c110.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.992,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x694b…dadbbacked Yes40c107.52$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ef…9808backed No64c107.4$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.629277.2%71 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90c4…46d8backed Yes60c106.71$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433050%15 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes45c104.23$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9710936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes39c103.87$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.119541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes38c99.38$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6245238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8f…171bbacked Yes60c99.07$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.631241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes69c98.94$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.61,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3011…add7backed Yes43c98.87$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.841435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes41c97.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.495635.7%20 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce96…d2f1backed Yes46c95.93$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.45837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf3…f1bcbacked No50c94.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c75…4636backed Yes55c90.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes73c90.56$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes40c89.53$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No58c87.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.081,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes53c87.13$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2511249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba5…8434backed Yes51c86.26$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.912343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No58c84.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7227167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed No33c82.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.085560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes46c81.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0640525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No26c80.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.951,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f0…8994backed Yes38c80.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.99837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes42c79.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.581,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes40c78.84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1325239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.87,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes41c77.89$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2414062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd425…bf47backed No62c77.59$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.15068%34 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7598…b1c2backed Yes60c76.19$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.61560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes71c75.74$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.11,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf607…7ca0backed No58c74.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.14632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes38c73.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6426434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes38c73.45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5464333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e53…254cbacked Yes43c73.15$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.884431.8%14 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No64c72.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20b9…69e7backed Yes51c71.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.07955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba60…8d09backed Yes44c70.83$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.331546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7396…b89cbacked No68c70.51$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810780.4%86 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2427…52a2backed No53c69.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.994955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9327…3b2ebacked Yes71c68.76$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.831050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a6…4e4bbacked Yes53c68.25$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes35c68.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.362,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes38c67.2$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4639535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes38c65.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7311938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No62c64.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3414671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x406f…327dbacked Yes47c63.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.162020%4 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c63.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes45c62.58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2210640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a38…16a5backed Yes33c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.25543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes50c59.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.873135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.