Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91ee4b89f846de21274321d75e04b0d7a86fa8ae556b272b1cf007249a094e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 2,098$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…4240backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 2c | 888.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 862.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 688.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 2c | 658.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 645.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 4c | 598.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 558.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…7d74backed Yes | 18c | 539.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 3c | 513.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 3c | 495.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 3c | 472.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 3c | 436.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 3c | 433.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 416.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…bb28backed Yes | 3c | 393.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 3c | 365.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 4c | 319.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…f1c6backed Yes | 4c | 304.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…8daabacked Yes | 6c | 239.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 5c | 229$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 6c | 228.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…c01bbacked Yes | 8c | 141.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…4636backed Yes | 9c | 141.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.