Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ba305f78ae6de2b5e40a1f9c38761e4789f023021590e8434b91600baf18dc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…cba6backed Yes | 0c | 15,779$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 2c | 3,054$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…7630backed Yes | 1c | 2,626$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 25c | 1,542$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.79 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cca…82f7backed Yes | 18c | 1,294$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 1c | 984.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 928.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 905.55$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.41 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 861.35$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 713.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 625.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 3c | 549.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 312.45$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 281.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…ca06backed No | 71c | 251.94$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…ad9dbacked Yes | 37c | 235.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 47c | 230.15$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 193.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 52c | 179.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 39c | 147.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 49c | 144.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…eb6ebacked Yes | 68c | 140.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 62c | 132.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x043b…3380backed Yes | 74c | 131.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 41c | 129.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 47c | 125.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 53c | 117.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 117$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 105.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 104.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked Yes | 48c | 103.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…5c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…7bb4backed Yes | 70c | 97.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c24…f342backed No | 59c | 95.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…20a4backed No | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 45c | 89.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…f1bcbacked No | 54c | 88.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 32c | 87.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 87.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 32c | 87.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked No | 61c | 84.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 82.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…e399backed Yes | 75c | 80.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 37c | 79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 78.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…91cdbacked Yes | 63c | 77.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 39c | 76.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 44c | 75.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 55c | 75.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 44c | 73.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 46c | 72.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 61c | 71.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 60c | 67.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 67.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 55c | 66.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…ea16backed No | 27c | 65.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 30c | 65.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 45c | 64.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 33c | 59.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 61c | 58.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 50c | 58.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 38c | 58.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…0702backed Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 48c | 52.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 53c | 50.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1876…a993backed Yes | 46c | 50.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…9770backed No | 56c | 48.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 35c | 48.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 43c | 47.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fed…c4ebbacked Yes | 35c | 47.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 63c | 46.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…5fc8backed No | 76c | 45.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f73…dbbdbacked Yes | 41c | 45.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 44.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 44c | 43.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aba…ba26backed Yes | 53c | 43.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 44c | 43.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 28c | 40.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 40c | 39.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…9ccabacked Yes | 48c | 39.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 61c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…91a8backed Yes | 49c | 38.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 57c | 38.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 47c | 38.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d3…def7backed No | 59c | 38.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 41c | 38.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed Yes | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…1d3dbacked Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cd1ebacked Yes | 55c | 35.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.