Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb2cee0aa2658a845ed2e7a6db66ce17a8cf87dac4d065cbb6821c6c4640512f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x585a…26ecbacked Yes | 0c | 10,722$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…7630backed Yes | 0c | 6,334$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked Yes | 3c | 1,421$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 27c | 848.64$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.86 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 842.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cca…82f7backed Yes | 8c | 646.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 609.44$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.79 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 7c | 553.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f73…dbbdbacked Yes | 17c | 479.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 18c | 399.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 70c | 390.96$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 79c | 362.17$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 6c | 279.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 272.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 23c | 221.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…1d00backed Yes | 5c | 221.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 14c | 204.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 75c | 182.6$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 11c | 181.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 164.23$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…6568backed Yes | 17c | 160.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 8c | 159.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 157.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 31c | 155.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…1472backed Yes | 13c | 151.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 135.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847b…b0fcbacked Yes | 38c | 123.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 41c | 119.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 10c | 109.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 16c | 100.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 76.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 28c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 56c | 53.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…d445backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked Yes | 23c | 49.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe919…6cb9backed Yes | 35c | 49.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 66c | 44.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46c…dfd4backed Yes | 44c | 42.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 75c | 33.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…809dbacked Yes | 41c | 32.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 73c | 31.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf475…b5ebbacked No | 75c | 29.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 77c | 27.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed No | 74c | 25.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 55c | 24.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 76c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…b345backed No | 73c | 19.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 57c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 72c | 18.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc352…82e7backed No | 73c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 70c | 16.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe365…c0d8backed No | 76c | 15.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…e5f5backed No | 75c | 13.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.