Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfea4fc898caac7834bc319f769c620b018d00c9a783b7c3ed2a487fecc77155f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd60c…f46cbacked No | 0c | 54,830$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 1c | 8,781$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…cba6backed No | 0c | 8,136$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 0c | 2,586$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 1c | 2,080$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed No | 34c | 1,797$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.49 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 74c | 1,648$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 45c | 1,592$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.58 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…7a1cbacked No | 51c | 1,046$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 36c | 1,003$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.83 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…ca06backed Yes | 69c | 999.99$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 814.09$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 39c | 643$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.23 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 8c | 622.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.4 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 71c | 573.8$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.61 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 20c | 547$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 516.33$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 6c | 501.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.93 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked No | 45c | 486.08$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.82 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 72c | 456.04$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.64 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f73…dbbdbacked Yes | 6c | 417.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 34c | 361.36$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.13 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 44c | 336.62$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.53 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 55c | 320.23$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.18 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 45c | 313.45$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.17 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…a144backed Yes | 58c | 311.27$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…5afdbacked No | 31c | 295.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 44c | 285.27$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 72c | 278.14$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 265.54$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x360e…c70abacked No | 72c | 237.1$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 49c | 234.81$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 64c | 223.37$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 56c | 208.56$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 186.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 80c | 184.02$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…7d42backed Yes | 62c | 181.04$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 30c | 176.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 16c | 175.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 37c | 175.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 53c | 154.56$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed Yes | 11c | 154.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.55 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…20a4backed No | 67c | 144.93$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 144.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 142.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 36c | 142.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…f027backed No | 68c | 138.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 17c | 137.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.31 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 128.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 52c | 126.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 29c | 118.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 32c | 115.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 62c | 106.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 16c | 104.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.41 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 26c | 104.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 30c | 101.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…4dc0backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed No | 62c | 99.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 39c | 98.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed Yes | 37c | 90.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 66c | 88.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 61c | 87.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 20c | 85.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…7561backed No | 61c | 82.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 19c | 80.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 41c | 80.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 45c | 79.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 36c | 77.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 46c | 73.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 27c | 70.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 73c | 69.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…286cbacked Yes | 22c | 63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…d9a3backed Yes | 36c | 61.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 57.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 30c | 56.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 38c | 56.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 71c | 52.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 56c | 51.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…7bb4backed Yes | 53c | 49.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 37c | 49.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 27c | 46.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 62c | 46.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 40.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…ccb4backed No | 74c | 39.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 70c | 38.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 75c | 38.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…ea16backed No | 29c | 38.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 54c | 37.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.