Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe1a95fc70304e1c32d005dffd21cd26fcd79896d893bb59529ffb10324a01b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x157c…ac69backed Yes | 3c | 870.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 686.93$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 4c | 591.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 12c | 583.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 9c | 549.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed Yes | 7c | 421.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 349.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 347.03$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes | 11c | 290.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 33c | 285.66$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 271.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 17c | 266.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 38c | 220.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 202.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 41c | 196.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 194.88$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 181.73$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 62c | 169.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 167.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 165.13$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 32c | 160.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 34c | 145.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 21c | 133.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 14c | 129$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 79c | 126.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 112.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked No | 78c | 96.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 93.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 87.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 39c | 84.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 30c | 82.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 39c | 79.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 54c | 77.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 66c | 75.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 32c | 73.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 64.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 63.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 17c | 60.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820f…598abacked No | 67c | 59.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 30c | 59.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…2faabacked Yes | 35c | 57.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…c68dbacked Yes | 30c | 56.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 55c | 50.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 30c | 45.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 33c | 44.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 47c | 42.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 41.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 40.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 70c | 38.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 65c | 37.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 36.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…333bbacked No | 69c | 36.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 32.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 46c | 32.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 56c | 31.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 30.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 58c | 30.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afe…2efdbacked Yes | 33c | 30.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 50c | 30.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 35c | 30.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 68c | 29.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 67c | 27.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked No | 66c | 26.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 51c | 26.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 52c | 25.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 53c | 25.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…1d1abacked No | 53c | 24.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…e9c1backed No | 69c | 23.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…ab6fbacked No | 69c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf110…f023backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 70c | 17.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 59c | 17.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 16.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.