Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x211c21b3bbae07708f7b27137ff314b3d32a81b53fdb40b9a5ffabe78c489f54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad0b…9eb1backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 9c | 1,957$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.57 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 13c | 1,200$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 15c | 799.93$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.17 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 693.22$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 444.92$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed No | 10c | 233.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 21c | 232$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 7c | 195.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 32c | 157.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 56c | 154.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 149.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.33 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 149.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 56c | 148.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd54c…391dbacked No | 66c | 137.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 136.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 76c | 132.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 119.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 109.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed No | 14c | 100.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733a…7251backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 57c | 99.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 60c | 97.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 62c | 97.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 76c | 89.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 88.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed No | 32c | 85.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 77c | 83.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 43c | 76.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 39c | 74.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…9136backed Yes | 28c | 71.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +259.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes | 43c | 69.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 28c | 68.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 67.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 30c | 67.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 64.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 63.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…5b3bbacked No | 68c | 62.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…b708backed Yes | 66c | 56.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed Yes | 31c | 55.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820f…598abacked No | 53c | 53.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 48c | 52.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 50.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 33c | 50.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 27c | 49.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 56c | 49.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Yes | 35c | 48.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 66c | 47.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 64c | 44.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 73c | 40.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 74c | 39.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 54c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed Yes | 58c | 36.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 32c | 34.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 54c | 33.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406f…327dbacked Yes | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 30.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 49c | 29.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…d0efbacked Yes | 45c | 29.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 53c | 29.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 78c | 28.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 59c | 28.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3afe…075dbacked No | 44c | 27.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 44c | 26.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 26.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…e9c1backed No | 70c | 25.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 58c | 24.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 58c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02f…613fbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 20.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf110…f023backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 59c | 19.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 18.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c59…7052backed Yes | 72c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.