TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1024…03c5backed No1c6,729$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed No38c1,192$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.978149.4%40 W · 41 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No8c1,144$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5328737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No5c1,099$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.622,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes58c772.88$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.427146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa05f…742dbacked Yes75c706.94$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.531181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes53c691.57$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.671,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc683…010bbacked Yes62c568.43$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.482665.4%17 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No47c567.77$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.711,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No9c561.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.834618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…b48fbacked Yes78c560.7$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.06540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5209…b249backed Yes65c511.04$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.51933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes45c410.48$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.3210120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No35c389.98$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9763656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No46c379.53$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.794,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e3…8973backed Yes58c374.13$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.951154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No39c364.5$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9115570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No29c326.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.431,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No54c313.31$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.923,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes75c312.52$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.582445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes48c307.57$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.4133139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes59c306.76$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.964,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes60c301.3$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.913533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7944…ee79backed Yes59c289.95$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.782240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No54c282.31$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.683,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes63c277.71$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes38c272.41$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.841,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c270.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes43c261.28$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.713930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c246.41$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.427,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes59c237.58$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.291,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No33c235.27$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes60c233.19$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.242832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes64c230$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.15050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes58c219.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.811731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes59c214.94$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.251631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No55c213.67$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1171,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes66c209.39$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.066,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8be2…214bbacked No40c208.7$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.33520%7 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-55.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb81…7b82backed No53c202.24$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.313053.1%69 W · 61 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes59c200$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.51643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0943…1019backed Yes48c195.66$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.811070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes55c194.95$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.182955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c39…74a8backed Yes61c180$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cab…f49abacked Yes55c178.25$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.211154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes54c176.9$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.522835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9fd…f242backed No57c176.84$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.853351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No27c173.85$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3327841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac45…844fbacked Yes61c172.79$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.053423.5%8 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad2e…95f1backed Yes39c171.31$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.97771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+76.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed No38c169.32$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.244337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No42c162.72$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.621,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa654…58c9backed Yes60c161.24$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.175343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes61c158.98$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.361,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes47c152.74$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2939535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02bb…b7b9backed No66c147.11$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.37520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-70.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c146.73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No8c146.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6b33…044ebacked No41c145.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.262138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xece9…d960backed Yes67c144.97$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes53c144.71$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.54562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked No45c141.81$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3823738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32f…b708backed Yes69c140.03$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.11944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeda…b697backed Yes78c138.86$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.198872.7%64 W · 24 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes36c130.66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7119541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes36c130.24$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.595633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8682…15a9backed Yes79c130.17$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.371250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes37c130.09$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.551,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes36c124.08$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9143525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5157…c01bbacked Yes75c123.72$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.461030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes63c122.61$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3912735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes35c119.47$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.663333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No15c115.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7115954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes44c114.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4642857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe472…4360backed Yes48c114.13$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.395328.3%15 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No64c113.83$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.241070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8783…d1aabacked Yes63c110.8$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.841662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No51c110.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.718,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes69c107.02$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.956046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes64c105$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.253652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd342…1ad9backed Yes36c103.67$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.33966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes45c103.29$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3111146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Yes73c101.38$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4415534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes50c101.17$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.31,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaad2…eb4bbacked Yes74c101$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.26875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick69cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes48c100.83$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.483435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x571e…67b2backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4030442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No52c99.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes76c99.35$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1218550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No39c97.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.511,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes57c95.63$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.571,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff65…f1cdbacked No21c92.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.525518.2%10 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No64c91.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc63a…26a0backed Yes50c90.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.712532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c90$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4566141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No55c87.11$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.297468.9%51 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33a1…b0c7backed Yes73c86.54$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.741435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.