Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x474aca830389c8829bfff1c82fadab2c5fd7381f5900e4ac441375c63e981951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…e15abacked Yes | 1c | 4,789$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 2,080$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,121$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 9c | 1,086$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 18c | 1,076$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.51 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 680$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 531.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 444.95$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…8169backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 367$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 341.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 319.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 280.35$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 249.1$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 222.24$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…0db0backed Yes | 43c | 220.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 39c | 205.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 40c | 191.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 179.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 26c | 166.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 35c | 162.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 61c | 142.43$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 21c | 139.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…ea77backed No | 71c | 135$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 59c | 134.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 29c | 134.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…fca3backed No | 65c | 128.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 61c | 125.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 24c | 125.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 41c | 121.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 36c | 117.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 40c | 117.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 20c | 113.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 38c | 113.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 61c | 109.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 65c | 107.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 107.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 39c | 103.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 103.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 100.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 97.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 29c | 92.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 62c | 86.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 84.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…ffcabacked Yes | 36c | 82.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 64c | 76.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 65c | 76.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 40c | 76.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 75.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 54c | 71.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 66c | 68.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 27c | 65.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 45c | 65.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 42c | 65.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 43c | 64.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 58c | 64.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 61c | 63.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 61.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 60c | 57.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 60c | 57.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 35c | 56.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed Yes | 29c | 55.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 63c | 55.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 63c | 54.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 49.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed Yes | 30c | 48.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 29c | 47.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 60c | 47.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 40c | 46.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 65c | 45.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 67c | 44.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 43.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 42.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 68c | 42.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked No | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 39c | 41.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 41.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed No | 58c | 39.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 71c | 38.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 56c | 36.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 33.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 64c | 32.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…dfb5backed Yes | 39c | 31.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 58c | 31.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 40c | 31.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 51c | 29.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 42c | 27.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 64c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 64c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.