Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4210260520eb914274290b02164bac5970b95eeddbc6d804baf3d3c49f2b580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 1,132$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 814.89$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 643.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 10c | 505.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 473.19$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 5c | 327.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 13c | 306.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e3…fd66backed Yes | 8c | 279.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 240.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…baa1backed Yes | 19c | 232.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 14c | 214.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 183.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 42c | 178.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 159.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked Yes | 11c | 149.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ae…9168backed Yes | 18c | 146.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 142.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 132.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 125.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 20c | 121.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 15c | 112.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 109.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 13c | 100.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 19c | 94.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 88.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 16c | 79.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 56.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 47.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 44c | 45.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 65c | 33.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 64c | 22.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…8169backed No | 69c | 19.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.