Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaab371cd3a7a71e7c83d1d98137619b57f343a31b18872023d5c7dea44f34681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 5c | 2,323$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.45 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 3c | 830.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 38c | 453.22$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 75c | 425.46$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.7 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 377.09$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 354.55$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 312.29$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 40c | 302.05$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.95 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…0db0backed Yes | 45c | 293.62$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 45c | 253.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 246.72$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 198.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 8c | 176.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 39c | 162.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 158.12$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 64c | 143.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 47c | 142.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…71a0backed No | 55c | 139.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 37c | 138.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 59c | 135.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 26c | 131.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 130.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 31c | 116.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 44c | 108.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 30c | 106.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 30c | 104.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 36c | 101.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 56c | 101.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 11c | 99.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 54c | 97.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 41c | 91.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 57c | 90.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 86.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 72.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 72.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 74c | 67.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 59c | 66.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 60c | 66.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 17c | 63.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 45c | 63.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 34c | 60.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 27c | 59.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 45c | 58.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 35c | 56.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 35c | 56.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 62c | 55.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 45c | 53.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 67c | 53.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 33c | 52.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 25c | 52.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 62c | 50.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 45c | 48.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 61c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 68c | 47.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…e15abacked Yes | 39c | 47.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 41c | 45.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed Yes | 41c | 44.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 53c | 44.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 50c | 43.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 45c | 43.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa4…2229backed No | 66c | 41.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 79c | 35.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 46c | 33.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…dfb5backed Yes | 40c | 32.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…62b7backed No | 60c | 31.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 45c | 31.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…309abacked No | 62c | 31.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf6…87f6backed No | 35c | 31.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 38c | 29.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 44c | 29.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…152dbacked Yes | 45c | 29.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +317.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 43c | 29.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 66c | 27.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 61c | 25.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 59c | 24.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…9ea8backed Yes | 49c | 24.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 48c | 23.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 56c | 20.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 69c | 20.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 80c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 80c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2782…1320backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 63c | 19.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 69c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked No | 61c | 18.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.