TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,712

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1775…85b0backed No5c2,840$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9836648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed No22c1,532$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.257534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No1c1,341$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.051,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No6c1,170$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2360121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58d5…d270backed No9c945.31$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.195641.1%23 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No4c925.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No67c920.45$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.4441845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed No5c718.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.730428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes25c708.59$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.784,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe961…8dcabacked No2c551.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes71c463.1$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes27c364.95$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.1556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…92f1backed No3c363.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No12c355.9$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.834339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes35c351.45$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.63221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes50c351.07$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.965,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes50c324.96$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.821,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked No6c314.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89708.6%6 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes63c303.34$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes79c299.78$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.842,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c226.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.392,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No47c223.22$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.023622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes64c200.04$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.511,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No78c186.85$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2642469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No64c179.22$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.723035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes79c173.48$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6918668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed Yes79c170.83$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.65565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes29c169.85$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.645238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes34c160.57$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2432132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked No24c158.16$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.926845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes63c145.94$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7126834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No55c126.62$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2720958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb3a…8daabacked No64c124.82$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.835756.1%32 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes43c117.42$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3824238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No12c110.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.641,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes37c101.3$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.825152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6344646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.54731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No19c99.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1928517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9733…be31backed Yes26c95.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.037250%36 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe009…121ebacked Yes26c89.03$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.22638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes18c89.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.629028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bd4…ed07backed Yes36c88.05$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.11353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c83.39$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.869,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c81.74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No51c76.54$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.014,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0354…758ebacked Yes27c70.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.721643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No63c69.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1428737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No78c69.52$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c69.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.823,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf7…ebeabacked Yes28c69.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.924369.8%30 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes25c68.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4694919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No68c65.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4227167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf096…28a8backed Yes36c64.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.281827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa3…0d65backed Yes78c63.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.013675%27 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes45c61.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.897932.9%26 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes29c55.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.772,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes47c54.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8640242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes25c53.46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.966041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked Yes25c51.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.724233.3%14 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes37c50.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.652138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3714744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes35c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5112735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc41…108fbacked Yes31c49.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.269852%51 W · 47 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa811…75b8backed No49c48.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.146070%42 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f0…f424backed Yes62c46.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.792334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed Yes25c46.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.711663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1c0…646ebacked No62c44.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.862568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No74c44.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.091,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes35c43.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0720358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes33c40.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No77c39.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1181756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No72c38.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.931,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No74c37.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.72,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No63c35.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3893734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa542…3f6cbacked No54c35.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.085141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cf1…b5d1backed Yes65c33.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+176.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes42c32.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1633349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c81…1b64backed Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.86144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c25.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.267,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No77c24.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.972,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f87…1b6ebacked Yes46c24.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.213040%12 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd011…0b65backed No66c23.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.313253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x958f…014fbacked Yes75c22.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.683100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c2…0728backed No65c21.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No66c21.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2719547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No65c20.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2299571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e5e…5441backed No66c18.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.483250%16 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x481c…2325backed Yes57c18.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8412365%80 W · 43 L+12.2wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…a6dcbacked No75c16.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.341915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c16.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…aff0backed No72c16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5214944.3%66 W · 83 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.