Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13bc88aed0e14fb79ecc8a06f3392255e991c759dc835bbad3022c4e85291fa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 21c | 401.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 27c | 374.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 19c | 370.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 12c | 360.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…a5a0backed Yes | 4c | 335.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…aacbbacked Yes | 5c | 303.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 22c | 248.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes | 25c | 225.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…0ffebacked No | 70c | 217.33$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 14c | 201.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 192.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 167.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 145.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 23c | 143.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 141.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 138.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 138.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 24c | 108.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes | 16c | 104.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 20c | 101.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 25c | 100.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 19c | 100.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 19c | 95.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 16c | 90.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 90.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 24c | 89.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 14c | 89.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 79.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 66.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 60.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 60.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 24c | 56.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 18c | 56.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 79c | 55.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 47.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 27c | 45.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b01…a95cbacked Yes | 28c | 44.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 41.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…758ebacked Yes | 26c | 40.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 76c | 33.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 79c | 31.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 70c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 75c | 19.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…734ebacked No | 78c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 76c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.