TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,028

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,415 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1838…29b4backed Yes1c2,875$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9796313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9345…b1b1backed Yes1c2,734$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.222045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes30c2,677$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.9836648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf229…d5f7backed Yes26c2,253$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.723928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No71c1,973$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.5139966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes1c1,922$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8686420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes6c1,783$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8240741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes2c1,499$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9318116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes2c1,367$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.761,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes6c1,211$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.117534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No67c1,067$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.284339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes35c791.03$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27819338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cae…def2backed No73c525.86$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.53669.4%25 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d5…d270backed Yes10c476.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.615641.1%23 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed No74c442.21$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.032045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes19c417.82$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.473622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes16c377.51$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.175,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc06…0db6backed Yes14c359.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.65933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes22c333.9$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.460121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes16c333.16$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8630813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c332.55$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No70c330$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9916335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes23c307.2$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.926240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes29c302.16$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2130428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No63c300$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11241845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes28c225.82$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes38c213.63$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1654043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3af…e1c6backed No72c212.6$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.95875%6 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes25c203.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4713533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes11c200.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2314632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1134918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes7c199.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9335429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No78c198.72$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.264,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes7c197.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.823225%8 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes25c196.58$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.326317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes28c189.67$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.969,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes17c183.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c166.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.682,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes13c160$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.83221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes30c153.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.515152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4950…32cdbacked No74c148.77$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.19771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick76cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes19c144.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9774023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes28c134.47$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.142138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ef…3fe0backed No79c132.8$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.07683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick77cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked No79c125.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.447445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No76c120.47$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.157,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes11c117.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes21c116.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5724238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c115.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.617,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xae54…37d1backed Yes16c112.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Yes19c104.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.922550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabcc…32f6backed Yes46c103.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.051060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No75c101$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2529953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No74c100.31$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1625175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd8de…614dbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed No72c99.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2814744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed Yes19c96.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.494731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe009…121ebacked Yes29c93.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.722638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No74c91.56$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.812154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x997a…33abbacked Yes21c85.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No61c81.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4224370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes13c80.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.541,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.47524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed No75c77.2$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.533658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes27c74.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.151,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa3…0d65backed No72c67.5$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.93675%27 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e43…2e9cbacked No60c67.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.842458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes16c66.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.737932.9%26 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c37…2f3cbacked Yes28c66.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1304…751ebacked No73c66.04$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6913067.7%88 W · 42 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes34c65.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3716324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes42c65.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3646444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1328…ddc2backed Yes32c64.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes28c61.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.411,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes22c59.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.911225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcccd…4a1bbacked Yes26c54.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes27c51.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1259125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf740…d999backed Yes22c50.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.151136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed No78c50.26$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1425058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.560519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6de…9452backed Yes36c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188428.6%24 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes29c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.252,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa51c…fc1ebacked Yes26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No74c49.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8359440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No65c48.34$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.112,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No62c47.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…2afcbacked Yes23c45.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes26c44.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.620358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb7…571abacked Yes27c42.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4066…2407backed No65c42.58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8513243.9%58 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d86…9671backed Yes29c41.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126833.8%23 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x045c…c74abacked Yes30c40.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.091643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f5…1ad7backed No72c39.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.26479.7%51 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93ed…35c4backed No74c39.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2817861.2%109 W · 69 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed No60c38.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7632830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed No74c38.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1835465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765d…8189backed Yes35c38.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62825%7 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes36c35.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.831,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2d5…18e1backed Yes29c35.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.