Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf761fa2cc019c45244788b1d32764e398765b1ced2b5d21229bb928d49c5cad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,875$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…b1b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,734$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 30c | 2,677$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.98 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 26c | 2,253$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.72 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 71c | 1,973$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.51 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,922$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 6c | 1,783$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.82 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 2c | 1,499$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 2c | 1,367$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 6c | 1,211$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 67c | 1,067$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.28 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 35c | 791.03$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed No | 73c | 525.86$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.5 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed Yes | 10c | 476.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed No | 74c | 442.21$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 19c | 417.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 377.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc06…0db6backed Yes | 14c | 359.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 22c | 333.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 16c | 333.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 332.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 70c | 330$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 23c | 307.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 29c | 302.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 63c | 300$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 28c | 225.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 38c | 213.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…e1c6backed No | 72c | 212.6$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 25c | 203.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 11c | 200.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 7c | 199.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 198.72$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 7c | 197.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 25c | 196.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 189.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 183.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 166.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 30c | 153.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…32cdbacked No | 74c | 148.77$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 19c | 144.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…89f5backed Yes | 28c | 134.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…3fe0backed No | 79c | 132.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 79c | 125.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 120.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 117.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 21c | 116.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 115.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae54…37d1backed Yes | 16c | 112.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 19c | 104.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…32f6backed Yes | 46c | 103.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 75c | 101$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 74c | 100.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 19c | 96.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…121ebacked Yes | 29c | 93.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 74c | 91.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…33abbacked Yes | 21c | 85.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 61c | 81.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 80.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…95f3backed No | 75c | 77.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 27c | 74.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 72c | 67.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…2e9cbacked No | 60c | 67.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 16c | 66.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…2f3cbacked Yes | 28c | 66.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 73c | 66.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 34c | 65.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 42c | 65.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1328…ddc2backed Yes | 32c | 64.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 28c | 61.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes | 22c | 59.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccd…4a1bbacked Yes | 26c | 54.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 51.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…d999backed Yes | 22c | 50.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 78c | 50.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…fc1ebacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 74c | 49.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 48.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 62c | 47.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…2afcbacked Yes | 23c | 45.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 26c | 44.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb7…571abacked Yes | 27c | 42.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 65c | 42.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 29c | 41.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…c74abacked Yes | 30c | 40.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 74c | 39.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 60c | 38.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 74c | 38.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed Yes | 35c | 38.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 36c | 35.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d5…18e1backed Yes | 29c | 35.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.