Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x846b978b4ff94025a39aac5f912be4a9be12dea707cf464692a634fcedb7908b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 0c | 5,096$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2357…2529backed Yes | 1c | 2,567$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 16c | 1,466$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.73 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 3c | 1,414$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,323$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 11c | 672.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed Yes | 4c | 561.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 23c | 402.02$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 368.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 19c | 279.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3e…4802backed Yes | 6c | 246.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 19c | 211.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…4240backed Yes | 24c | 193.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 182.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 19c | 176.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…3fe0backed No | 76c | 173.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 159.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 138.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a66…16cebacked Yes | 30c | 133.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 13c | 132.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 76c | 120.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 118.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…32cdbacked No | 80c | 111.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 28c | 106.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 102.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 101.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 26c | 98.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 24c | 98.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed No | 80c | 98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 97.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 23c | 91.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…121ebacked Yes | 22c | 89.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff1…c957backed Yes | 24c | 76.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae54…37d1backed Yes | 26c | 71.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 67.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 73c | 66.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 76c | 65.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 80c | 63.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 18c | 62.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 19c | 54.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed No | 67c | 51.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…758ebacked Yes | 21c | 50.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ac…882bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…fc1ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 23c | 43.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 79c | 37.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 37.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 74c | 26.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 73c | 22.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 76c | 20.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 72c | 18.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…b1b1backed No | 72c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.