Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ecec7d7260f5f5faf910871f108ebf6f7a225308e213d6b11c022dfc192e4da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 4c | 2,199$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 361.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 36c | 211.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 199.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 29c | 196.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 193.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 17c | 163.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 143.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 65c | 107.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 104.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 79c | 86.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 79c | 81.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 79.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 21c | 73.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 25c | 70.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 42c | 67.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 63.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 26c | 63.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 59c | 63.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 30c | 58.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…3eb3backed No | 69c | 47.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 46.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked Yes | 39c | 44.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 68c | 43.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 74c | 41.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 28c | 40.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked Yes | 27c | 37.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2efb…bcdfbacked Yes | 41c | 36.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 33.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 77c | 24.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 76c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1912…cfc1backed No | 60c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…8f0cbacked No | 66c | 17.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.