Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4fd826f21b72bd6281a4c49577bde6308af9b7394cfb43c11f2f76b7f8daf6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 7,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 54c | 380.32$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.98 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 349.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 48c | 270.95$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 232.32$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.27 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 23c | 216.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.52 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 210.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 208.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 185.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.81 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 170.45$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…7760backed Yes | 17c | 161.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 26c | 128.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 28c | 112.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 17c | 107.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…c17fbacked Yes | 15c | 98.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +164.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 75c | 86.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 76c | 83.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 33c | 69.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 25c | 68.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 26c | 65.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 64.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 34c | 60.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 48c | 58.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 76c | 48.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…3eb3backed No | 67c | 47.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 46c | 33.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…b590backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 76c | 28.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 64c | 25.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 69c | 25.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 64c | 22.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 73c | 19.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 13.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.