Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90663c9a59e9056ee7f4657d2b12553fb1bfd9710e8e39a892c76672ecb0cc44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 2,869$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 3c | 1,161$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 37c | 1,018$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.72 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 35c | 979.52$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.96 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 79c | 737.36$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.05 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 683.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 24c | 633.91$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.03 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 79c | 557.43$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.91 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 524$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 422.58$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.37 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd2…066abacked Yes | 13c | 402.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 399.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 391.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 380.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 70c | 366.23$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…2a81backed Yes | 31c | 323.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 69c | 311.25$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 29c | 258.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 18c | 226.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 215.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…75c4backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 185.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 169.67$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 153.71$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 24c | 153.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25f…0929backed Yes | 24c | 152.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…2a60backed Yes | 18c | 149.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…97c3backed Yes | 34c | 147.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 27c | 131.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…ec3dbacked Yes | 36c | 128.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 33c | 124.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 39c | 123.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 120.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 26c | 118.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 101.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 100.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…310bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 67c | 98.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 29c | 94.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 87.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 86.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 73c | 79.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…f655backed Yes | 24c | 76.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed No | 75c | 74.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 21c | 71.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No | 65c | 67.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 36c | 66.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 65.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 30c | 62.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 63c | 59.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 65c | 58.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 65c | 58.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 18c | 57.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 65c | 55.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 27c | 55.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 41c | 55.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed No | 71c | 54.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 39c | 53.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Yes | 39c | 53.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 65c | 52.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 76c | 50.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 50.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…ad84backed Yes | 37c | 48.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed No | 64c | 48.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed No | 68c | 46.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 33c | 46.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 64c | 45.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 35c | 42.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a8…b852backed No | 61c | 41.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed No | 68c | 40.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…7d65backed No | 74c | 38.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 67c | 38.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2989…9869backed Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 37.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 63c | 36.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 76c | 32.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf63…c3bbbacked No | 67c | 31.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 63c | 30.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 37c | 29.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed No | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 64c | 28.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…d3d1backed No | 65c | 28.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 65c | 27.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 69c | 26.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 25.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 63c | 23.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked No | 63c | 23.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 68c | 23.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 63c | 22.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.