Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a14d9c74227e7cb00676470e2d2c3c1d4cac382e6be34d385370ef5a56ec6fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed No | 10c | 2,855$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 7c | 2,412$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,242.35 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 2c | 1,404$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 15c | 753.1$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.16 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 633.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.64 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 10c | 604.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.1 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked No | 43c | 525.95$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.89 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 16c | 460.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.4 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 40c | 451.44$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.09 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 8c | 440.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.78 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 430$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…36f6backed No | 14c | 407.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 335.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.83 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 294.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.43 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 288.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 273.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 260.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.13 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 245$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 9c | 243.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.62 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed No | 5c | 243.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 237.24$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 11c | 228.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked No | 8c | 217.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 211.61$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.79 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 6c | 190.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.19 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 10c | 188.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.69 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 180.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 13c | 179.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.91 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 11c | 176.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.37 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 11c | 172.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 161.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.06 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 13c | 158.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 12c | 153.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.02 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 153.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.21 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 9c | 153.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.41 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 15c | 150.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 18c | 149.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 15c | 148.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.53 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 31c | 145.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 52c | 139.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 8c | 135.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 12c | 112.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.96 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 17c | 110.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 107.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 106.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 15c | 101.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d67…8f33backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 11c | 98.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 20c | 89.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1881…d72cbacked Yes | 27c | 83.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 75.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 25c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 71.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 25c | 71.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 17c | 58.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa127…4e1fbacked No | 19c | 55.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 29c | 48.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 41c | 31.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 71c | 27.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 64c | 24.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…d6b6backed Yes | 80c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.