Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cb76de16cbbf8f32c09fd188e670632def39e611f0415af191630783072e9c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 611.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 17c | 598.43$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 530.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 65c | 470.49$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.65 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 11c | 400$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8560…7302backed Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 5c | 399.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5547…5924backed Yes | 49c | 387.38$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 383.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 4c | 374.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 372.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 52c | 362.8$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.62 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…8810backed Yes | 37c | 340.87$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 336.32$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.61 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 32c | 335.52$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25f…0929backed Yes | 34c | 299.52$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 284.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 259.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 49c | 259.75$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.87 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 217$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 18c | 207.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 12c | 207.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 203.67$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 196.32$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…a397backed Yes | 12c | 191.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 79c | 175.34$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 39c | 169.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 169.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 161.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 156.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 8c | 150.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 35c | 141.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 140.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 72c | 140.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed No | 51c | 136.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 13c | 134.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 50c | 132.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 127.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…43abbacked Yes | 10c | 126.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 39c | 125.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 39c | 125.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 120.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 40c | 118.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 13c | 118.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…2a81backed Yes | 50c | 117.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 20c | 110.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…d6b6backed Yes | 39c | 108.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…ec3dbacked Yes | 45c | 104.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed Yes | 29c | 100.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…310bbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed No | 61c | 98.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed Yes | 37c | 90.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 30c | 89.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 18c | 88.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 49c | 79.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…3d79backed Yes | 38c | 79.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 45c | 72.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 71.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 44c | 70.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 70.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 41c | 68.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 48c | 68.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 56c | 66.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 45c | 63.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 61.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 42c | 60.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 58.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 69c | 55.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…2551backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…ad84backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 38c | 49.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 39c | 49.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 44c | 49.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 62c | 48.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed No | 55c | 48.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…40bdbacked Yes | 39c | 48.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 48.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed No | 55c | 46.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…f655backed Yes | 41c | 45.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 28c | 40.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed Yes | 40c | 39.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 32c | 37.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 74c | 36.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 42c | 35.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 56c | 35.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 36c | 34.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked No | 64c | 33.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 59c | 31.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 45c | 31.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 46c | 30.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.