Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8945951019ae51b576f0ee5229937e3377b1ee31782c83158a6031760d859ff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,199$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.82 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 1,161$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…c1a4backed Yes | 74c | 1,096$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,018$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.6 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 74c | 1,004$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.57 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 39c | 966.67$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.49 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 23c | 899.44$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.84 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 1c | 827.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 41c | 820.94$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.44 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30e…2548backed Yes | 66c | 802.28$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 33c | 583.35$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.54 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 552.77$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 6c | 549.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 3c | 474.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 38c | 450.45$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.17 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 70c | 418.91$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.22 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked Yes | 79c | 359.36$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 326.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 325.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 66c | 304.57$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.89 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 79c | 282.12$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.34 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 267$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 227.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 53c | 226.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1300…78b1backed Yes | 69c | 222.76$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 28c | 217.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 68c | 214.35$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.76 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…3b65backed No | 62c | 206.74$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 33c | 196.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.98 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d6…4df9backed Yes | 75c | 195.16$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 183.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…d14dbacked Yes | 52c | 183.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 35c | 182.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 7c | 178$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 64c | 170.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 63c | 167.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…e35fbacked Yes | 29c | 163.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 159.54$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 36c | 157.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 30c | 155.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 73c | 146.42$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…aa26backed Yes | 57c | 145.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 40c | 141.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 140.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 38c | 136.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 35c | 133.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 25c | 131.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…5a85backed Yes | 66c | 131$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 69c | 130.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed No | 34c | 129.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 127.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 37c | 127.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 51c | 124.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 70c | 123.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 64c | 119.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 33c | 119.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…397ebacked No | 66c | 116.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 116.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 111.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 109.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 109.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…2066backed Yes | 38c | 106.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…db02backed No | 78c | 105.62$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 53c | 104.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed No | 34c | 101.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68b…385fbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…f49abacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2db1backed No | 69c | 99.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…310bbacked Yes | 59c | 99.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes | 63c | 95.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked No | 35c | 94.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 40c | 94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 38c | 93.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 46c | 92.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 35c | 91.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 66c | 90.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 90.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 44c | 88.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 88.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 87.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 62c | 86.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 29c | 85.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 74c | 81.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked No | 60c | 80.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed Yes | 58c | 77.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 74.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2484…d405backed No | 47c | 73.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes | 38c | 73.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…0c97backed Yes | 79c | 68.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed Yes | 72c | 67.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 63.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 42c | 57.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.