Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3af6cf921dc4c42abce9853f3eec8b12573f74bc14dda8612a716714469547f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc279…7023backed Yes | 0c | 4,430$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,003$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 16c | 1,135$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.77 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…a54abacked Yes | 1c | 1,048$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 21c | 835.88$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…542fbacked Yes | 21c | 702.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…18c7backed Yes | 21c | 450.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 402.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 348.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 329.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 319.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 5c | 310$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 77c | 299.98$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed Yes | 8c | 284.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 249.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 15c | 245.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked No | 76c | 234.25$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 14c | 211.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…5e5fbacked Yes | 25c | 199.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d5…4520backed Yes | 18c | 196.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 13c | 193.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 16c | 193.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…5289backed Yes | 11c | 182.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 181.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 80c | 163.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 162.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 150.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 21c | 147.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 27c | 140.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 129.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…078fbacked No | 80c | 126.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 118.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 110.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 74c | 106.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 29c | 102.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 16c | 100.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 24c | 99.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 18c | 98.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 18c | 97.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 12c | 95.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 90.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…fa08backed Yes | 17c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 89.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 22c | 87.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 15c | 86.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 21c | 85.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 16c | 83.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 27c | 79.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 77.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 16c | 75.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 26c | 75.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ba…4da2backed No | 74c | 73.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 80c | 69.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 78c | 62.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 20c | 59.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 56.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 53.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…6391backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 79c | 49.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed No | 74c | 48.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed No | 79c | 46.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 41.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed No | 79c | 29.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…de25backed No | 79c | 29.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce1…2b6abacked No | 79c | 24.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 23.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 80c | 22.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…51c8backed No | 75c | 22.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.