Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x490b61b946d57a29d2653e4bc11865d3dd8140c69c8cfc551ddffd39600229e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 3,155$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,787.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,890$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 3c | 1,735$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…5a85backed Yes | 30c | 929.9$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 700.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.75 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 31c | 614.28$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.46 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 8c | 576.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 8c | 530.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.89 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 467.92$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 7c | 440.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.9 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 429.4$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 16c | 418.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.03 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 7c | 398.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.02 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 8c | 390.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.16 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 8c | 356.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 312.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 7c | 281$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 277.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 6c | 273.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.54 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 56c | 273.85$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 15c | 259.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.6 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 248$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 14c | 247.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.82 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 206.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.37 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 205.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 49c | 198.03$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 197.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 12c | 192.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.83 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 9c | 183.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.17 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 7c | 180.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.48 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 173.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 12c | 170.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.73 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 13c | 152.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 77c | 150.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 149.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 130.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 16c | 124.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.46 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 9c | 114.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 24c | 113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 17c | 107.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8910…4734backed Yes | 14c | 102.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed Yes | 17c | 102.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 13c | 97.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de1…1f55backed Yes | 15c | 90.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 74.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 31c | 60.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 80c | 19.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 79c | 19.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 15.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.