Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc75f58aa9b7022854541cee0e8f610e4224cac4d7190cf915958dc007541df48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 5c | 2,039$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 1,794$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 76c | 1,636$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.54 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 1,229$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 71c | 773.71$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.91 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 36c | 647.79$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.35 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 29c | 539.78$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 52c | 458.49$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.91 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 77c | 364.18$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 295.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 277.29$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 261.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 234.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed Yes | 32c | 229$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 218.82$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…c1a4backed Yes | 36c | 216.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 19c | 202.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 32c | 198.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 32c | 193.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.05 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 79c | 184.11$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 179.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 26c | 175.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 166.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 8c | 154.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.5 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 12c | 153.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…ee29backed Yes | 24c | 149.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…6391backed Yes | 24c | 149.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 19c | 126.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 16c | 125.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 123.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 23c | 117.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 116.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 111.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed Yes | 74c | 111.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 25c | 111.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 110.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 20c | 107.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 32c | 99.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 23c | 97.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 43c | 97.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 22c | 97.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ff…c661backed No | 72c | 97.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 22c | 96.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 29c | 93.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 18c | 93.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 24c | 92.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 24c | 89.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…548dbacked Yes | 25c | 89.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed Yes | 18c | 89.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 30c | 88.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 77c | 84.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…db02backed No | 76c | 80.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 28c | 78.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 24c | 77.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 25c | 73.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 71.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 25c | 68.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc00d…c34abacked No | 15c | 67.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 64.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 24c | 63.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 21c | 58.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 34c | 58.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…97eebacked Yes | 29c | 54.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 27c | 51.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 71c | 50.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 77c | 50.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…07b9backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d24…9f38backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 49.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…fa08backed Yes | 32c | 48.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 80c | 48.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…fdc7backed Yes | 69c | 48.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 32c | 47.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 72c | 46.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 29c | 46.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…a39fbacked Yes | 23c | 45.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 22c | 45.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…d14dbacked No | 65c | 44.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 43c | 44.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0de1…1f55backed Yes | 29c | 42.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…40bdbacked Yes | 25c | 40.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…d6d9backed Yes | 56c | 40.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 37.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…7076backed Yes | 50c | 37.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 72c | 36.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…4841backed Yes | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.