Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe517a459be3025cd1319c25ecc95cf238938e27d2fb5bda04f20d5c7c3065d19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca22…71a0backed No | 1c | 5,341$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 1c | 1,847$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked No | 6c | 1,294$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 5c | 992.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c968backed No | 1c | 843.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 3c | 416.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 42c | 338.98$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.78 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 236.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 177$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 20c | 173.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 158.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 152.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 39c | 145.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 57c | 120$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 119.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 60c | 119.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 116.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 22c | 115.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 44c | 110.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…a1afbacked Yes | 41c | 108.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 16c | 107.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 46c | 102.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…9059backed Yes | 42c | 100.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…1cd1backed Yes | 60c | 98.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 41c | 97.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 65c | 92.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 92.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 60c | 87.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 19c | 84.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 78c | 83.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked No | 30c | 80.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 41c | 73.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 33c | 72.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 21c | 68.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed No | 62c | 67.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 58c | 66.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 66.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 63.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 25c | 63.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 62.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 61.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 59.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 27c | 57.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 65c | 53.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…0ccdbacked Yes | 41c | 53.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…a0a2backed Yes | 40c | 41.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 35c | 41.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 60c | 40.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 52c | 36.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 29c | 34.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 63c | 33.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6f…a9d9backed No | 65c | 29.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 38c | 29.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…fd91backed Yes | 45c | 25.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 40c | 25.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 47c | 24.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 54c | 24.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 56c | 21.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…3e1dbacked Yes | 54c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b57…bb1ebacked Yes | 55c | 19.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 19.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 80c | 14.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.