Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x504c85776a487bc70981ed9a204a1395768ed9334f9516896df43ba51d1a792f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8907…a996backed Yes | 29c | 1,722$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…f373backed Yes | 17c | 1,402$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +472.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 71c | 1,120$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.06 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 28c | 285.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…a1afbacked Yes | 24c | 242.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 214.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 191.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 12c | 185.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 177.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 30c | 171.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 167.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 28c | 163.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 149.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 16c | 137.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 14c | 136.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 27c | 136.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 25c | 126.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 10c | 115.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 13c | 108.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 20c | 100.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…9059backed Yes | 17c | 95.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 91.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 86.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…0ccdbacked Yes | 37c | 84.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 18c | 79.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 77.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 68.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 57.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 20c | 56.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 501 | 23.8%119 W · 382 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f3…883cbacked Yes | 26c | 54.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 37c | 50.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 22c | 47.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 48c | 35.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…0afdbacked Yes | 30c | 33.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 71c | 33.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 71c | 33.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…b19fbacked Yes | 33c | 33.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 61c | 30.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 67c | 25.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 23.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 71c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.