Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e65b4299da659348976d555b47de953eb4f801cfad359be38f0e063bf392953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 78c | 424.87$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 286.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 24c | 280.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 258.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 21c | 244.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 190.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 25c | 171.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 139.23$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 23c | 122.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 21c | 111.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 24c | 74.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 69.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 78c | 64.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…bb22backed Yes | 25c | 40.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…cfd4backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 23.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 77c | 20.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 69c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked No | 80c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…cf37backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.