Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd203943f34866a1faecec5cb6cf29ae104933f5cb40d67b747d08a7541448e0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 577.03$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 12c | 384.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 346.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 308.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 282.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 18c | 264.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 8c | 229.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 228.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 182.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 14c | 178.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 14c | 160.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 142.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 15c | 134.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Yes | 17c | 132.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef3d…f943backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 16c | 107.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…5e90backed Yes | 26c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 30c | 89.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 86.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 17c | 81.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 66.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed Yes | 20c | 62.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 42.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 27c | 39.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2990…b034backed No | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea4…0388backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…c607backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…0b6dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…1436backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…d7f2backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 17.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…c0f6backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.