TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,923 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes40c1,410$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.741,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1236…c968backed No1c1,393$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No1c1,243$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6147136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes23c1,226$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.5986420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes77c1,070$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.9125742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb25…2fdebacked Yes52c1,058$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.471450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes14c1,009$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.6636930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes76c993$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.525362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes24c916.71$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.2956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes19c860.95$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.1941046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes37c841.23$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.4641845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes11c791.96$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.9317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No72c707.62$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.5958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No24c678.06$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.038,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes11c622.83$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.782,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No57c602.67$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.6886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No40c534.92$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9557545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes79c531.65$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.0517358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes76c531.42$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes33c506.96$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.0212329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d13…44bcbacked Yes65c505.95$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.26128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes15c407$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.4113010.8%14 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba3a…e041backed Yes25c400.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.569927.3%27 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes40c385.77$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No7c366.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0233620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c363.42$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.084,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5b…4d82backed Yes16c357.49$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.51717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes50c355.29$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.566,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e86…18c7backed Yes17c351.54$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.261323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed Yes15c333.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.311220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes18c312.3$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.512,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No9c304.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.456219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes12c304.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.4310120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes14c300$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25856118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c261.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.257,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes21c243.29$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.926828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No41c230.92$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c228.91$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…c6b6backed No8c226.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.211947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c9b…f74fbacked Yes26c209.32$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.171225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes15c208.31$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.291,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes17c203.88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.921,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c194.51$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.125,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes30c185.97$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3534319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No63c179.27$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.041,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No52c175.95$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x72d0…52f0backed No41c175$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.46845.6%31 W · 37 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes17c164.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.291,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes22c151.16$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.341,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes9c150.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.6213424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12010728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes16c150$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.534918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes30c150$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes19c144.65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1747442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4c…444cbacked Yes72c144.22$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.384429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed No27c141.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7913315%20 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes71c138.52$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0816738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1cd…aecdbacked No50c137.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.278561.2%52 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes19c134.91$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.892920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No24c133.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8160121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes46c128.13$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.741,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes21c124.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.631,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No75c119.89$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.141,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes30c117.96$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0543525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No71c116.6$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2529558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x709a…6170backed No71c115.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.51540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-43.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0141…29febacked Yes23c112$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No68c111.94$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0732652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes22c111.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.246033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Yes18c105.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.898124.7%20 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9955…6998backed Yes15c101.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.764219%8 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes36c100.2$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9412932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715226.9%14 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed No77c97.89$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.381080%8 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes21c96.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.197728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes15c94.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.45322.6%12 W · 41 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes22c90.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4553437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes17c89.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3122028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce3d…c12abacked Yes22c89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No29c85.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes60c83.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8459440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes49c81.74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7414645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f24…38a5backed No13c79.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.36825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f87…1b6ebacked No25c79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.563040%12 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes22c73.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0286847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes14c70.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5814826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes42c70.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.912,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No80c70$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5616366.3%108 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes19c69.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.371,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd68e…7c6cbacked Yes42c66.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes22c66.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.52,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x789d…af8bbacked No35c61.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.429060%54 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No75c60.1$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.011,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4518671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes22c57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1837644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes20c55.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1465043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No74c55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.749038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.