Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe91f8c202a26ac6bdcfc36224542c6372411b8278756ff781f06c7be7ceb472c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 1c | 4,985$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 12c | 2,077$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.7 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 8c | 2,023$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.13 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,216$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.77 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 68c | 1,105$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.55 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 9c | 1,049$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 984.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 6c | 980.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 30c | 806.19$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.09 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 745.15$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 9c | 743.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 727.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 702.84$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 558.32$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 9c | 509.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 494.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 6c | 479.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 73c | 465.4$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.74 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 79c | 459.89$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.95 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 9c | 451.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 6c | 426.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 3c | 414.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 16c | 399.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…4d82backed Yes | 5c | 396.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 315.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 10c | 310$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 11c | 306.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…18c7backed Yes | 11c | 273.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 268.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 17c | 264.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 5c | 255.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 19c | 254.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.02 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 250.62$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 10c | 236$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 23c | 219.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.22 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 7c | 211.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 24c | 206.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 195.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 11c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 11c | 179.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 13c | 155.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 78c | 154.65$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 150.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 10c | 147.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…b867backed Yes | 8c | 118.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…f74fbacked Yes | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 22c | 102.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…123bbacked Yes | 21c | 96.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 59c | 93.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…3784backed Yes | 13c | 91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 23c | 87.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 22c | 62.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 61.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 78c | 44.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 25c | 43.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 44c | 40.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…95f3backed Yes | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 36c | 28.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.