TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,048 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57ee…8112backed Yes6c2,637$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.81,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes23c1,617$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.91,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes29c1,340$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.1741046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes10c1,318$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.922,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes7c1,300$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.768,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes23c1,185$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.854,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes30c1,135$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.9456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes13c1,107$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0360121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes10c1,093$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0934319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes18c994.4$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.936930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes5c886.17$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2396313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c878.17$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.52,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes17c760.44$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c700.46$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes29c685.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7112329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes10c671.12$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.932,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No74c453.71$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes18c418$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6313010.8%14 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes13c411.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9825742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes30c408.22$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8630428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba3a…e041backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.289927.3%27 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c379.83$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes24c366.96$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5867633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c348$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.356,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d97…66f8backed Yes30c333.96$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.294057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes8c300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.311515.7%18 W · 97 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5b…4d82backed Yes20c291.74$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.571717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c271.17$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.584,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes21c270$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.223035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes17c267.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1910120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes50c260.85$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13025362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes11c253.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.771,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes22c240.75$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.611,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes36c224.81$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.423956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d13…44bcbacked Yes14c220.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes6c217.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.221,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc575…d68ebacked No76c215.75$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.81862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c208.9$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.025,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa530…88f6backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…f74fbacked Yes28c196.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.41225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e86…18c7backed Yes22c191.16$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.81323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5d0…2295backed Yes28c179.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid+89.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4da2…41e5backed No70c170$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.29929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes7c155.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes18c144.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4813424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed No73c144$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.881080%8 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes49c137.52$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2616840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes19c131.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7341845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes17c129.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.721,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb5…5a64backed Yes33c128$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes16c126.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a6…f86bbacked Yes28c126.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.53250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes26c123.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.651,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No60c121.16$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8132652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ca…2f70backed Yes25c120.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No71c119.73$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6629558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7745…230bbacked No73c117.61$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.27887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+88.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No76c116.79$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.921,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes15c113.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.687,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes14c112.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8715923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No71c112.76$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2186050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes31c111.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6226827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3034918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.311041.8%46 W · 64 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6663538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2134748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9955…6998backed Yes20c99.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.424219%8 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes25c99.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2552935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c97.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.647,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes21c97.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.173,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes18c93.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.95226.9%14 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked Yes21c93.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes23c83.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9217358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes28c80.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4326828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes27c73.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2086847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8bd…87aebacked Yes15c73.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…715cbacked No59c71.04$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes28c70.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes19c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.326236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb25…2fdebacked No80c70$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No76c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.816366.3%108 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9855…8190backed No80c69$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes22c67.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1515334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes18c66.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes23c63.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.581,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes21c62.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0222028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Yes31c62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.224924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd630…28edbacked Yes24c61.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes25c58.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.521643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf547…9ebbbacked No68c55.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.997361.6%45 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No59c54.44$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.271,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89f8…1bc1backed No72c52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…d84abacked No71c52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes23c51.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.993,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…5a62backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b85…b31ebacked Yes25c48.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes34c47.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1532548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.