Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a3abf455e43e4260dd9545aeb69d544d458728833f7f137440e9f62d04cf256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 1c | 1,366$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 1c | 1,021$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 387.3$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 57c | 379.35$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.01 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 316.27$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 54c | 293.89$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.48 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 291.47$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 277.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 52c | 272.79$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.85 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 5c | 253$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 9c | 248.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 32c | 222.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked No | 9c | 215.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 53c | 207.07$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.29 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 75c | 192.64$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…78d1backed Yes | 54c | 171.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 56c | 167.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 160.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 44c | 151$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 41c | 141.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 139.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 61c | 137.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 123.12$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 77c | 120.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 45c | 109.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 23c | 107.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 51c | 105.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 19c | 105.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 55c | 103.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 43c | 102.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 100.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 47c | 100.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 44c | 99.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 43c | 94.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked No | 56c | 93.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 38c | 93.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 38c | 93.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 54c | 93.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 65c | 92.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…bafbbacked Yes | 51c | 92.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 37c | 90.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 89.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 87.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 65c | 86.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 34c | 82.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 81.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…bc88backed Yes | 44c | 79.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 61c | 77.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 74.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3353backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 22c | 68.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 63.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 37c | 62.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 61.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 54c | 59.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…272fbacked No | 56c | 59.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 51c | 58.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 43c | 56.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 46c | 54.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 42c | 53.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 53.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 34c | 51.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 49.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…9901backed Yes | 38c | 49.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…8036backed Yes | 44c | 48.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 29c | 48.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…dce9backed No | 54c | 45.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 58c | 45.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 44c | 41.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…2cbebacked Yes | 27c | 38.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 41c | 37.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…7b70backed No | 61c | 37.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 41c | 35.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked Yes | 39c | 34.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 57c | 33.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb34a…6e39backed Yes | 43c | 33.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…792abacked Yes | 44c | 31.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 46c | 31.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 46c | 31.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe536…41b6backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 44c | 30.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 74c | 30.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…865bbacked No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 48c | 29.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba84…331dbacked No | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 59c | 28.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 49c | 28.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5614…83d0backed No | 53c | 25.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…13c1backed No | 58c | 24.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570a…5e04backed No | 56c | 24.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…a0a8backed No | 56c | 23.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked No | 44c | 23.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 58c | 22.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 22.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 50c | 21.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.