Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf8ada128ab2e98e690251a9647c1b65bae44edb3725e497becf59d631c1a783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 8,036$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 1,518$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 39c | 1,011$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.29 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 784.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 43c | 756.92$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 76c | 742.52$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.33 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…6984backed Yes | 2c | 700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 687.12$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 17c | 563.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 46c | 504.56$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.72 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 4c | 488.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 448.82$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 30c | 404.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.65 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 391.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 5c | 382.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 312.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 7c | 308.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…ae11backed Yes | 8c | 279.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 255.34$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 238.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 5c | 220$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 9c | 217.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 215$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 214.53$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 7c | 204.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 52c | 195.57$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 30c | 195.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 192.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 55c | 175.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 52c | 174$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 172.8$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 13c | 154.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 152.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 64c | 150.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 146.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 73c | 136.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 62c | 125.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4459…5191backed Yes | 16c | 123.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 41c | 122.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…b590backed Yes | 17c | 119.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 118.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…1a76backed Yes | 9c | 117.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 9c | 116.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…8770backed Yes | 16c | 115.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 103.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 57c | 101.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 30c | 97.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 42c | 95.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 55c | 86.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed No | 63c | 85.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 55c | 83.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 47c | 71.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 41c | 70.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 41c | 69.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 41c | 68.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes | 58c | 68.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 48c | 60.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 19c | 57.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…be6abacked Yes | 29c | 48.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 54c | 46.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 44c | 43.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 42c | 42.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Yes | 73c | 42.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 73c | 39.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…e3c6backed Yes | 43c | 39.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 50c | 38.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 75c | 34.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 58c | 32.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 58c | 32.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 31.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…fa08backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 67c | 28.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 45c | 28.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked Yes | 54c | 27.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa2…7f7ebacked Yes | 42c | 24.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd7…84b8backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 69c | 19.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 64c | 18.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 17.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 79c | 16.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 74c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 70c | 14.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.