Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ab850dc84fb1443ce2f79a059d43befd41ff75633d83ee5aeb106c358c359e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 8,572$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,171$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 12c | 773.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 24c | 595.79$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 486.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 17c | 435.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 13c | 350.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 337.62$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 332.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 296.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 6c | 267.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 80c | 259.16$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 18c | 233.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 22c | 215.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 214.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 77c | 196.78$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 190.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 74c | 172.35$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 15c | 159.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 12c | 147.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 147.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 28c | 118.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 28c | 112.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 99.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed No | 73c | 97.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 25c | 94.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 24c | 93.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 64c | 88.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 81.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 80.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…b590backed Yes | 25c | 74.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 29c | 73.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…2533backed Yes | 26c | 72.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 70.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 25c | 64.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 63.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 71c | 59.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 32c | 58.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 25c | 55.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 29c | 53.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 28c | 49.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 25c | 46.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 35.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf51…9e89backed Yes | 33c | 35.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7717…276ebacked Yes | 35c | 32.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 75c | 32.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…c533backed Yes | 43c | 28.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 28.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 67c | 21.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 78c | 17.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 80c | 12.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.55 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.