Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7985b3c734b396b2d33228acbf6968a2821200f86495e3ce1e4ec81ec1c7c9b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 68c | 1,335$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.23 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 1c | 1,318$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 80c | 1,005$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.61 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 1,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 18c | 939.52$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 5c | 814.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.86 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…cac7backed Yes | 17c | 791.7$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 19c | 752.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.02 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 28c | 661.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.37 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 2c | 495.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 492.45$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 23c | 442.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.6 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 49c | 441.23$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.94 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 11c | 404.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.03 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 352.82$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 67c | 335.01$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.91 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 318.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 38c | 312.29$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.86 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 294.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 22c | 277.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.81 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 23c | 257.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 8c | 255.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 16c | 243.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 235.06$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 16c | 232$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 21c | 227.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.56 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 200.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 189.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.37 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 173.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 171.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…b145backed No | 79c | 168.9$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 162.23$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 7c | 161.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.45 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 27c | 159.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.55 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 152.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 18c | 151.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed No | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 149.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 148.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 19c | 131.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 26c | 129.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 128.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 17c | 128.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 17c | 117.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 42c | 113.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…9752backed No | 10c | 109.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 108.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 16c | 108.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 80c | 108$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 28c | 99.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…b590backed Yes | 23c | 93.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 13c | 91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 13c | 90.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 17c | 89.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 18c | 87.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 22c | 83.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 82.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 23c | 82.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 18c | 80.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 23c | 77.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 76.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 75.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 80c | 73.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 16c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 71c | 69.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 35c | 65.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…492bbacked No | 79c | 65.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 74cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed No | 75c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 41c | 64.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 80c | 64.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 61.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 30c | 58.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 50c | 57.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 76c | 57.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 56.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 72c | 55.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 76c | 50.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 25c | 49.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 80c | 49.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa945…110fbacked No | 51c | 48.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 50c | 41.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 73c | 39.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 33c | 37.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 32.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 70c | 32.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…fdb9backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 80c | 29.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 53c | 28.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e6…5705backed No | 72c | 28.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 80c | 24.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…3eb3backed No | 48c | 23.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 23.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 75c | 21.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.