TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,429

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,117 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes1c1,711$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.782,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No80c1,075$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.5842857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes23c955.47$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.442,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes28c882.28$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.583221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes9c773.02$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.055,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes5c649.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No78c631.03$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.1336648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes25c569.55$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes22c545.96$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0576924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed No73c497.85$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.754257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes8c468$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.446219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes23c431.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8524238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fd1…d384backed Yes3c425$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11486.8%10 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes32c388.16$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.944,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes6c348.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c254.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.532,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee2…07a2backed Yes24c250.72$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.01933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes8c248.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9496313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed Yes32c234.02$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.763043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f94…8ffebacked Yes32c231.12$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.821233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+126.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes21c212.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c210.51$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc457…1675backed No69c208.38$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.435850%29 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes27c206.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes22c199.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes21c199.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes31c199.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes23c197.91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4630131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ecd…3923backed Yes11c191.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-80%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xac1f…711fbacked Yes10c187.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes27c182$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5620025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes16c179.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.011,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes19c167.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8118327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb297…ddd7backed Yes16c166.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.97850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes27c163.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.847445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a2…4240backed Yes30c156.87$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.481723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-38.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes20c152.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.481,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes23c139.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.516530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7543…0e36backed No74c134.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.41825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe009…121ebacked Yes33c130.85$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.742638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2586173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes47c122.97$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6418668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x89e3…5d22backed No73c121.4$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.26764.2%43 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes18c118.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3619123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd399…4517backed Yes49c117.13$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.794161%25 W · 16 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+41.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No71c106.22$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.517,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a7…f4d9backed Yes52c99.28$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No74c98.73$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6844646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9733…be31backed No75c98.54$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.767250%36 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes29c92.89$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8427744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No75c92.09$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0211652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec2…65e6backed Yes24c92.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.133116.1%5 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes28c91.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.921235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes20c87.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.824,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes25c85.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.091,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes26c84.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8911122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes22c82.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.083,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c81.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.631,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes28c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.89142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes28c79.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1498738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c78.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.859,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes17c73.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes28c73.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4110640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x113d…a5e6backed Yes26c72.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.052420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59c8…d2c8backed Yes34c68.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.351127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9d…246ebacked Yes27c68.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.541822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes28c68.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9819338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes50c67.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8614062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes27c65.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.541,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x704d…aceebacked Yes17c64.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes25c63.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.113030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f0…f424backed Yes29c63.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.592334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b6…5c95backed Yes30c62.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7b4…847ebacked No68c61.3$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes21c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7d4…3a45backed Yes31c59.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.621526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfbe…6a02backed Yes32c58.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No72c58.59$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.427167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes28c51.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.353253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54831.3%15 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6de…9452backed Yes32c49.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.848428.6%24 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4c5…36d1backed No67c47.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.652951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes29c46.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.656131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes34c46.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9698236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes30c45.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a23…425cbacked Yes32c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.32137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-73.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a72…9d77backed Yes38c44.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.013745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2dd…0512backed Yes26c44.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784b…f19ebacked Yes30c44.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.314845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f5…1ad7backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.26479.7%51 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf133…928dbacked Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-51.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1070770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c64…cb26backed No76c39.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.53366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes27c38.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.356633.3%22 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9732…343ebacked Yes29c38.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes27c37.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.