TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7543…0e36backed Yes0c6,229$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.08825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee2…07a2backed Yes1c5,406$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.06933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes33c882.19$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.813221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes34c790.66$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6de…9452backed Yes9c499.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.38428.6%24 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes25c487.62$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes34c451.76$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.592045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No73c387.75$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4411652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes16c384.74$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.042,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes13c381.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6545238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed Yes34c379.54$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.063043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes22c299.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No72c269.63$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1953437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes28c255.84$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.82927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes24c240.05$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.751,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes10c238.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8120942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f94…8ffebacked Yes27c232.45$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.551233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+126.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes31c199.97$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes15c199.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.989028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes25c196.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes25c195.48$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.381,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03d5…f5bbbacked Yes34c193.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes28c188.03$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes15c183.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.646317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes29c181.58$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0210640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f57…2265backed Yes22c179.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.751010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-68.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes22c173.18$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.467445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes29c171.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.874,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No79c159.7$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes21c155.76$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3420025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183225%8 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes31c148.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7424238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes11c130.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ede…86febacked Yes16c130$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes30c124.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc25e…5d00backed Yes15c121.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.451338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes9c113.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes26c111.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes23c111.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0276924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c109.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.112,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c107.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.997,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No73c106.22$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6812154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed No74c105.01$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.075164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+85.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b6…5c95backed Yes22c99.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.39616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes19c97.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3719123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes18c97.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.491,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9733…be31backed Yes27c96.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.837250%36 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes32c95.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7630131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes32c93.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6627744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes24c84.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4912941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes28c83.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1924029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes31c80.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1433535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes17c73.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5615136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a72…9d77backed Yes20c72.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.613745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c72.82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.064,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes29c63.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1825344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No73c61.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4416159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes23c60.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8410225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes26c60.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7893734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No72c57.89$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb954…c00dbacked No79c57.01$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.973148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e4…e43bbacked Yes35c54.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.71546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.789,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x784b…f19ebacked Yes28c52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1828742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes26c47.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2419338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebcf…086abacked Yes38c46.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes35c45.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2418255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e5…c4bbbacked Yes30c45.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b4…847ebacked Yes39c45.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1daf…f773backed Yes37c40.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.081915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.032944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f5…1ad7backed No79c39.16$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.226479.7%51 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e2e…027cbacked No70c38.74$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a23…425cbacked Yes36c38.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.05137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-73.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed Yes35c38.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.463658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No62c38.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5919547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No80c36.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3570770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x380b…09d2backed No79c35.39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3f0…f424backed No73c34.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.222334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No75c33.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4348743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes47c33.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5840242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x327f…2c55backed Yes31c32.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252020%4 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No76c32.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7111977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No65c29.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1921429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes36c28.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.233349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No79c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked No72c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.564362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x428e…cd5fbacked No76c24.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x268e…dfaebacked No73c20.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.691258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick70cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bd4…ed07backed No67c19.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a9…2227backed No80c19.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.927173.2%52 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac11…bdd1backed No75c18.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354e…c0b2backed No75c18.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.63246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7444…d815backed No66c16.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.692157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No66c16.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6190734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No80c15.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.