Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84650e76d1746fe5f3de87cfdc37f6811cd909a3747e6e465b7020f01e3449ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 9c | 2,204$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.77 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,543$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 12c | 860.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 18c | 824.23$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.82 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 7c | 736.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 12c | 684.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 2c | 608.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 8c | 601.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 594.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 7c | 579.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 10c | 561.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 540.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 515.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 7c | 496.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 477.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 2c | 475.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 470.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 457.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…847ebacked Yes | 12c | 448.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 399.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0208…c2c2backed Yes | 6c | 392.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 13c | 350$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d0…6fb4backed Yes | 14c | 320.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 15c | 290.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…2265backed Yes | 11c | 264.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 250.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 249.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…f52ebacked Yes | 5c | 245.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 20c | 243.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 5c | 231.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 14c | 200.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…e43bbacked Yes | 14c | 196.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 21c | 196.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 16c | 181.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 18c | 174.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 19c | 172.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 7c | 169.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 7c | 168.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 12c | 166.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes | 17c | 159.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 7c | 158.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 12c | 156.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 10c | 151.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…a5e6backed Yes | 10c | 145.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a773backed Yes | 8c | 126.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 12c | 122.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 12c | 121.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…b05ebacked Yes | 24c | 116.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 21c | 116.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 21c | 107.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…2f3cbacked Yes | 13c | 106.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 104.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes | 20c | 104.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7d…ab11backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3e…4802backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 23c | 95.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 20c | 94.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 16c | 81.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 22c | 79.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 18c | 75.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 24c | 71.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 24c | 59.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 25c | 55.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed No | 80c | 53.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 79c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 39.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 36.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…ab5fbacked No | 80c | 30.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…68ffbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 80c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.