Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20c5423e007f0f1a2e6b054908620ee7709d0215c9f9ad83d210ee7fe9a54954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,233$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.31 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 5c | 1,145$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 16c | 852.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 784.4$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 20c | 615.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 20c | 600.82$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed No | 80c | 500.67$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 460.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 16c | 286.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 275.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 244$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 241.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…8ffebacked Yes | 16c | 233$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed No | 78c | 215.17$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…32cdbacked No | 76c | 205.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 202.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 191.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 12c | 178.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 25c | 175.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…5d37backed Yes | 15c | 168.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 52c | 167.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 66c | 165.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…b05ebacked Yes | 23c | 162.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 158.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 12c | 152.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…121ebacked Yes | 27c | 137.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 18c | 136.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…0775backed Yes | 15c | 111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 107.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 24c | 105.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…eb8abacked Yes | 13c | 104.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…0d90backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 11c | 99.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 19c | 99.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…2c55backed Yes | 33c | 98.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked Yes | 28c | 92.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…ed07backed Yes | 19c | 92.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 28c | 91.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 15c | 91.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 20c | 82.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 80.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 24c | 77.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 69c | 69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 17c | 67.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 76c | 65.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…3a45backed Yes | 28c | 65.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…2fdebacked Yes | 29c | 65.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 24c | 62.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 29c | 55.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…c6e4backed Yes | 26c | 53.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 24c | 52.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 25c | 52.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebcf…086abacked Yes | 25c | 49.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 47.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 80c | 46.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 45c | 43.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 67c | 38.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x925d…b68cbacked Yes | 31c | 37.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 37.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 36c | 36.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 33.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 75c | 32.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 79c | 31.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 75c | 29.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…1a87backed No | 79c | 27.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked No | 73c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 70c | 17.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.