Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45976b6cb92cc837b93dac9c89d7f77968c38c8792b80022f436afed1829d68f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,529$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e89…9a0bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,531$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 20c | 2,021$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.73 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 21c | 1,987$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.65 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 77c | 1,879$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.16 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,606$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 1,376$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 15c | 1,326$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.09 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 1c | 1,252$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 80c | 965.02$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.65 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Yes | 16c | 956.55$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.05 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 792.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 2c | 759.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 9c | 641.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a7…f4d9backed Yes | 43c | 599.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 5c | 592$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 5c | 581.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed No | 79c | 574.02$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 564.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bd81backed Yes | 6c | 451.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed Yes | 3c | 446.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 4c | 407.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 9c | 362.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 6c | 340.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 5c | 295.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…b05ebacked Yes | 10c | 263.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 5c | 262.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 7c | 258.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 68c | 247$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0208…c2c2backed Yes | 5c | 244.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 26c | 240.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 5c | 234.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 27c | 199.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 34c | 189.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 6c | 186.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 33c | 181.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 24c | 174.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 17c | 168.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 18c | 166.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 28c | 161.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521d…e062backed Yes | 11c | 160.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 22c | 149.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 141.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 12c | 140.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…5f37backed No | 77c | 127.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 47c | 121.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 118.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 75c | 117$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 11c | 108.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 75c | 104.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebcf…086abacked Yes | 19c | 95.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 24c | 90.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…3923backed Yes | 24c | 81.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46b9…e5e8backed No | 50c | 74.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…b1b1backed Yes | 15c | 68.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked No | 62c | 68.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 56c | 61.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 27c | 55.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 72c | 51.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed No | 80c | 48.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 55c | 36.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…4c22backed No | 73c | 35.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed No | 74c | 33.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 76c | 31.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 29.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…c2d1backed No | 72c | 29.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f60…4127backed No | 76c | 29.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 79c | 28.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked No | 78c | 27.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc25e…5d00backed No | 69c | 27.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 72c | 27.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…8379backed No | 72c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 80c | 14.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.