Fifa International · resolved market
Wales vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81065f6b2b356b292398bc8fafb5927569bc90ad308901e3dcb4f0e3b9249f30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 507.61$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.55 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 36c | 400.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 44c | 192.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 200 | 67.5%135 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 56c | 141.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 103.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 54c | 98.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 41c | 97.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Under | 53c | 81.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 34c | 70.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 66.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 50c | 57.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 158 | 59.5%94 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 49.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…67bebacked Over | 51c | 47.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 53c | 46.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 44.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 51c | 37.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 46c | 33.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…d2c8backed Under | 61c | 28.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Under | 68c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 70c | 16.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wales vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Wales (-1.5)Northern Ireland won
- Wales vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wales vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wales vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.