TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$191,120
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$204,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,120 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Seattle Mariners50c39,999$19,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,824.7477053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked New York Yankees51c25,052$12,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,400.191,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Seattle Mariners37c14,760$5,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,389.4521656.5%122 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked New York Yankees50c13,736$6,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,821.931,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed New York Yankees72c9,720$6,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,735.522,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked New York Yankees52c9,489$4,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,554.89650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Seattle Mariners50c5,917$2,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,958.55248.1%25 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed New York Yankees52c5,625$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.1527452.6%144 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Seattle Mariners48c5,529$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.031,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners28c5,332$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.4612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Seattle Mariners29c4,924$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.6111547%54 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed New York Yankees50c4,923$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.4136649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Seattle Mariners50c4,850$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4254148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Seattle Mariners48c4,502$2,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.721,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Seattle Mariners50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners49c3,694$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.256,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees75c3,246$2,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.569,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Seattle Mariners50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50011125.2%28 W · 83 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Seattle Mariners50c2,836$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.151,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees74c2,706$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.218,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Seattle Mariners23c2,600$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59812754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed New York Yankees51c2,094$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.1232152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed New York Yankees51c1,979$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.8416547.3%78 W · 87 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Seattle Mariners50c1,973$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.496654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked New York Yankees51c1,885$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.512638.5%10 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-33.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5318…1118backed New York Yankees57c1,700$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.556752.2%35 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Seattle Mariners50c1,614$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked New York Yankees65c1,578$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.5560941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked New York Yankees74c1,435$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.3634164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees70c1,395$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.0910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Seattle Mariners27c1,364$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.2738148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Seattle Mariners49c1,330$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.577839.7%31 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked New York Yankees73c1,151$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.1318056.1%101 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Seattle Mariners29c1,042$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.3839351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked New York Yankees51c1,009$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.1411844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked New York Yankees71c995.63$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.7317768.9%122 W · 55 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed Seattle Mariners14c988.39$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.733228.3%94 W · 238 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed New York Yankees51c970.6$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.5961346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Seattle Mariners50c970$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48511744.4%52 W · 65 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Seattle Mariners2c965.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3540629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Seattle Mariners30c958$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.41533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Seattle Mariners50c905.99$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.9967849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf986…6833backed Seattle Mariners6c817.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.973158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x497c…a617backed New York Yankees53c795.78$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.01580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+49.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x669d…3a77backed New York Yankees53c795.55$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.158056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc7…7f02backed New York Yankees61c781.22$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.166055%33 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners47c766.23$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.345,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714d…6e05backed Seattle Mariners40c751.78$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.266437.5%24 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x109e…0a59backed New York Yankees51c727.21$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.642969%20 W · 9 L+5.8wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+79.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x919c…06d8backed Seattle Mariners49c722.2$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.881464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24f6…7ce9backed Seattle Mariners6c695.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2110634.9%37 W · 69 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e65…694fbacked New York Yankees70c640$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1926647%31 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Seattle Mariners50c598.18$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.091,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f0…361dbacked New York Yankees53c583.08$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.059554.7%52 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked New York Yankees51c545.48$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.2846749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Seattle Mariners29c535.35$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.361,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Seattle Mariners50c504.4$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.25345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1f4…92b2backed New York Yankees71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb7f…824bbacked New York Yankees50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2506764.2%43 W · 24 L+10.6wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked New York Yankees51c492.91$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.5330842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed New York Yankees51c485.3$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.822548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd7…33d9backed New York Yankees51c475.78$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.132751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Seattle Mariners47c470$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.944643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Seattle Mariners19c455.37$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.671,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Seattle Mariners49c425.57$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.5350751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99be…3622backed Seattle Mariners50c419.59$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.515752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Seattle Mariners48c403.99$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.031,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8107…da01backed New York Yankees77c389.36$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Seattle Mariners50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19438353.8%206 W · 177 L+16.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Seattle Mariners49c387.76$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1906243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked New York Yankees73c370$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.981257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked New York Yankees78c350.53$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.193262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c68…f274backed New York Yankees72c341.39$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa991…62c7backed New York Yankees53c333.66$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.821346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a7…569ebacked New York Yankees72c332.8$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.181464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Seattle Mariners51c330.97$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.812154.5%66 W · 55 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed New York Yankees74c322.28$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.55944.1%26 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1030…dd7abacked Seattle Mariners29c308.85$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.78246.3%38 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe704…b250backed Seattle Mariners11c300.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.046841.2%28 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Seattle Mariners48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14411647.4%55 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Seattle Mariners47c299.96$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.981,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked New York Yankees64c294.11$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5715243.4%66 W · 86 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd697…661dbacked New York Yankees53c290.49$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.531050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked New York Yankees49c255.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.5565050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees66c251.75$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.466,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed New York Yankees51c250.41$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.714047.1%66 W · 74 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9069…9c14backed New York Yankees53c244.47$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.9850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Seattle Mariners34c226.33$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6555541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0efb…016cbacked Seattle Mariners52c222.1$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.492544%11 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Seattle Mariners50c222$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11119951.8%103 W · 96 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees72c220.24$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.674,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf368…6499backed Seattle Mariners22c210.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.511838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Seattle Mariners51c208.68$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4331949.5%158 W · 161 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed New York Yankees73c207.92$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6378649.1%386 W · 400 L+3.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed New York Yankees51c203.83$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8711450.9%58 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Seattle Mariners29c202.03$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.810747.7%51 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84d…3a6cbacked Seattle Mariners49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Seattle Mariners30c197.43$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.231,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked New York Yankees51c194.12$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1250962.9%320 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Seattle Mariners50c194$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.