MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdff214863a9bcdc38dcb8a6c5be8a878d8d569dc84700cb8f3ed59afadc8cdff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 56c | 6,891$3,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,032.05 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Over | 44c | 6,741$2,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,966.03 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.85 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 1,645$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.71 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 52c | 890.28$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.42 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 36c | 786.41$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.2 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 758.11$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Under | 40c | 385$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 40c | 358.38$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 269.51$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.89 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Under | 45c | 224.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.57 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 63c | 220.92$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 61c | 196.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 22c | 130.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 59c | 100.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 47c | 99.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 44c | 97.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 59c | 94.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 57c | 89.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 44c | 80.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 42c | 77.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…f2d7backed Under | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…7042backed Under | 59c | 66.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 65.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Over | 43c | 44.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 42.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 56c | 40.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 41c | 37.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 41c | 33.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…06adbacked Over | 37c | 28.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 56c | 18.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: New York Yankees vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
- New York Yankees vs. Seattle MarinersNew York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.