TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,990
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,990 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5087…09bebacked Yes11c1,719$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.81425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes21c1,140$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.4743238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes2c996.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4840741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes24c748.2$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3623823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c715.39$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes23c680.36$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.831,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes2c670.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9111138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes21c550$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.711,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes19c535.91$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10373927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes12c425.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.061,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes19c409.57$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7424216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes11c376.68$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.777,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes26c352.13$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.881,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No78c336.81$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.021,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes27c324.08$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.641,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7c…f555backed Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874526.7%12 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes22c298.59$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.185226.9%14 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes21c280.42$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0520838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes15c268.73$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4198738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No79c266.08$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3720172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes25c256.7$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3214632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No80c249.6$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.232,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes17c237.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.486226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes20c236.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.094,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes17c226.11$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.21,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c211.76$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.994,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a73…a498backed Yes20c211.48$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.83522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes22c207.13$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No74c206.45$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.682,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c186.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.112,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes18c186.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3121235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes22c183.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9349038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No70c166.49$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e36…508fbacked Yes36c156.05$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.163450%17 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes25c149.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7149547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784b…f19ebacked Yes8c141.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.544845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes21c132.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9964021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No70c130.06$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.588160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No80c127.4$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4819753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes17c125$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No79c124.36$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4351762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No80c123.52$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.93,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes19c116.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4361659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes20c113.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8124432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes25c112.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.835018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No70c112.3$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.193652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes24c110.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5937644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No74c106.11$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5929922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No72c104.88$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.861,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes30c102.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.856643.9%29 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No76c101.65$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.627,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c100.13$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.545,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes15c99.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9926426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes26c99.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.851,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes48c99.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3949941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c00…9901backed Yes29c95.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.87650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes26c88.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5323738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088e…8827backed Yes21c88.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8596…34c2backed No70c85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.52466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes21c82.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.718550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes24c79.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5431029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22b…3d0fbacked Yes28c75.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.35825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes31c75.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.275633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c75.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.352,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ef…2f74backed Yes19c75.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes23c74.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0630046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x132f…9a22backed Yes23c70.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e9…bd8cbacked No75c67.95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.171346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb87…bcebbacked No79c65.62$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.972864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes19c64.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.328,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e93…78a6backed Yes29c64.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.586418.8%12 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes23c63.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3136819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes37c62.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.415735.1%20 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f7…9939backed Yes25c62.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.53823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes23c61.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4326434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes19c60.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6423022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes20c60.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2533535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd662…aeb5backed Yes49c59.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.032045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes21c57.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8512337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c56.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.599,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes26c55.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4668335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes20c55.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes26c52.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6185330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No77c51.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes27c51.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.919344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes30c51.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1756721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes26c49.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b9d…4bb2backed Yes24c47.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.582347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No76c46.87$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.067754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e86…6edbbacked Yes23c46.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.711216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1195…8ab4backed Yes24c46.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…4785backed Yes22c45.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.083243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+36.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No80c45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.248672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…0c24backed Yes30c41.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.721060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59c8…d2c8backed Yes29c40.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.711127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No80c37.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5919152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc004…7eabbacked No77c37.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.621662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes29c35.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.439529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.