Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30156fbc7c791fcbde937b339ff6499e26c2f5c8e5cf6bb9b639cd2de0e5a78d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,189$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.64 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 2c | 1,030$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed No | 10c | 873.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 814.55$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 34c | 793.48$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.79 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 789.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 778.95$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.68 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 651$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.67 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 647.3$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 560.29$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.16 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 22c | 531.6$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…2026backed No | 68c | 525$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 8c | 515.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 469.24$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 21c | 429.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.82 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 27c | 425.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.35 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 399.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 40c | 398.96$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.36 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 65c | 368.29$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 324.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 322.12$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 13c | 315.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.23 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 29c | 301.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.07 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…c2c8backed Yes | 74c | 299.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 32c | 297.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…09bebacked Yes | 44c | 295.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 23c | 278.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 39c | 278.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.91 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 73c | 259.3$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked No | 25c | 250.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 223.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.47 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 223$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 23c | 212.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.59 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 77c | 205.64$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 23c | 193.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.67 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 186.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.89 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 183.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 180.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.34 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 25c | 179.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd662…aeb5backed Yes | 49c | 161.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 22c | 160.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.66 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 60c | 149.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 18c | 146.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 20c | 144.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 134.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed Yes | 78c | 130.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 122.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 14c | 116.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 24c | 115.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 74c | 114.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 73c | 114.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb24…8250backed Yes | 37c | 108.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…6b73backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 98.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 25c | 98.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…3d0fbacked Yes | 23c | 97.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 97.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…310bbacked Yes | 42c | 96.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked No | 63c | 96.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 44c | 91.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132f…9a22backed Yes | 24c | 90.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 24c | 88.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…9901backed Yes | 33c | 84.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 72c | 83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 80.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 19c | 80.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 39c | 79.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked No | 36c | 78.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 19c | 77.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0924…c2d8backed Yes | 43c | 77.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 69c | 75.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 74.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 17c | 73.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 23c | 72.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed Yes | 68c | 71.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 61c | 65.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 27c | 63.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 62.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 45c | 60.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…2501backed No | 78c | 58.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef5…9313backed No | 22c | 58.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 27c | 57.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 25c | 54.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 26c | 53.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 22c | 52.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 52.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 75c | 52.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 78c | 51.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 40c | 50.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…8509backed Yes | 26c | 49.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 78c | 49.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 23c | 48.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 22c | 48.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Yes | 37c | 48.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.