Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa090a6afbd7badab9503100fbd369aa73384b5169551f70dadd127601ee14fdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 4c | 2,800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 20c | 2,437$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.28 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 1c | 1,632$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,133$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 953.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 904.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 890.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 7c | 840.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 775.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 16c | 702.46$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.39 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 9c | 653.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 5c | 633.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 594.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 3c | 582.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 2c | 518.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 5c | 506.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 503.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 497.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 8c | 493.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 459.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 14c | 458.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…0d02backed Yes | 11c | 448.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed Yes | 4c | 435.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 397.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 4c | 379.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 4c | 369.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…9304backed Yes | 11c | 368.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…1ec8backed Yes | 8c | 354.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 8c | 330.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…3d0fbacked Yes | 6c | 267.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked Yes | 33c | 257.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 255.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 16c | 232.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 7c | 227.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 5c | 212.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 7c | 208.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 7c | 200.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 195.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked Yes | 7c | 188.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 10c | 170.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 10c | 170$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7452…f952backed Yes | 12c | 152.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 8c | 140.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 136.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 9c | 132.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 14c | 129.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 12c | 120.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 10c | 105.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ac…a838backed Yes | 20c | 81.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…14b5backed Yes | 19c | 76.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 31c | 64.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 71c | 64.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 43.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 66c | 39.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 80c | 30.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 70c | 24.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 72c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…b489backed No | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.