Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e7aea00051a1797ca16ceca8fcc07124ceda3c0c131fe9bf7478164ed7ffb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 756.03$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 16c | 747.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 15c | 705.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 4c | 681.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 8c | 663.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 10c | 649.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 14c | 602.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 544.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 498.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…09bebacked Yes | 20c | 491.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 477.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 468.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 461.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 7c | 458.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 437.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 15c | 341.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 17c | 319.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 7c | 317.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 315.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 14c | 255.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 10c | 254.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 254.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 9c | 252.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 252.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 242.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…57a2backed Yes | 13c | 231.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 11c | 231.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…3d0fbacked Yes | 11c | 222.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 17c | 216.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 15c | 202.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 22c | 202.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 11c | 199.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 193.91$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 193.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 15c | 179.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 165.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132f…9a22backed Yes | 16c | 149.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 15c | 148.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 15c | 139.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 15c | 124.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed No | 78c | 117.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 13c | 115.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 13c | 108.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 14c | 108.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 106.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 23c | 101.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 97.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 96.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…2f74backed Yes | 22c | 95.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 95.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 12c | 95.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 18c | 93.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 21c | 92.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 79.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 71.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 78c | 57.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 77c | 28.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 80c | 23.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 76c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f15…4cd2backed No | 80c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 77c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.