Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f8c28eb5dbf94996aae3725465aeec1086d014006a68c919b23ce6c5f6ffb9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21c7…0643backed Yes | 55c | 1,221$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,159$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 7c | 410$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 14c | 394.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 47c | 339.67$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.9 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 311.83$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.27 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 281.29$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.61 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 214.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 212.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 157.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 148.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 145$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…76e3backed Yes | 14c | 138.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 48c | 137.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 48c | 128.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 19c | 117.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 58c | 113.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked No | 46c | 103.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 56c | 101.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 41c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 35c | 97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 94.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 88.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 88.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…1218backed Yes | 57c | 87.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 55c | 86.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 40c | 75.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…13c3backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 17c | 72.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 15c | 71.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 28c | 63.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 62.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 35c | 59.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 53.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 53.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 41c | 50.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 54c | 46.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed No | 45c | 45.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 44.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 40.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 23.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 76c | 23.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…6f7bbacked No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 55c | 21.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.